Last week, you might have seen that Fastenal Company (NASDAQ:FAST) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 8.1% to US$70.45 in the past week. Fastenal reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$1.9b and statutory earnings per share of US$0.52, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Fastenal

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Fastenal from 15 analysts is for revenues of US$7.77b in 2024. If met, it would imply a reasonable 5.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 4.3% to US$2.11. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$7.85b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.16 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at US$67.22, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Fastenal, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$85.00 and the most bearish at US$50.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Fastenal shareholders.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 7.1% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 8.3% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 5.6% annually. So it's pretty clear that Fastenal is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Fastenal analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the Fastenal Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.