Should Weakness in Roche Holding AG's (VTX:ROG) Stock Be Seen As A Sign That Market Will Correct The Share Price Given Decent Financials?

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With its stock down 11% over the past three months, it is easy to disregard Roche Holding (VTX:ROG). However, the company's fundamentals look pretty decent, and long-term financials are usually aligned with future market price movements. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Roche Holding's ROE today.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

See our latest analysis for Roche Holding

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Roche Holding is:

37% = CHF12b ÷ CHF33b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).

The 'return' is the yearly profit. Another way to think of that is that for every CHF1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn CHF0.37 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

A Side By Side comparison of Roche Holding's Earnings Growth And 37% ROE

To begin with, Roche Holding has a pretty high ROE which is interesting. Additionally, the company's ROE is higher compared to the industry average of 10% which is quite remarkable. Despite this, Roche Holding's five year net income growth was quite flat over the past five years. Based on this, we feel that there might be other reasons which haven't been discussed so far in this article that could be hampering the company's growth. These include low earnings retention or poor allocation of capital

Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that Roche Holding's reported growth was lower than the industry growth of 10% over the last few years, which is not something we like to see.

past-earnings-growth
past-earnings-growth

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Roche Holding is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Roche Holding Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

With a high three-year median payout ratio of 56% (implying that the company keeps only 44% of its income) of its business to reinvest into its business), most of Roche Holding's profits are being paid to shareholders, which explains the absence of growth in earnings.

Moreover, Roche Holding has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer dividends over earnings growth. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company is expected to keep paying out approximately 51% of its profits over the next three years. Therefore, the company's future ROE is also not expected to change by much with analysts predicting an ROE of 37%.

Summary

In total, it does look like Roche Holding has some positive aspects to its business. Yet, the low earnings growth is a bit concerning, especially given that the company has a high rate of return. Investors could have benefitted from the high ROE, had the company been reinvesting more of its earnings. As discussed earlier, the company is retaining a small portion of its profits. Having said that, looking at the current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings are expected to gain momentum. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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